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India Today – Cicero Bihar pre-poll survey

New Delhi: A day after the Election Commission announced the date for Bihar Assembly Elections, the India Today – Cicero Opinion poll suggests that at this point in time NDA is ahead in the race and is all set to form the next government.

FINDINGS

JDU (+): JDU + RJD + INC

BJP (+): BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM

VOTE PROJECTION

The findings of the survey suggests that there is a swing of more than 18% (18.8%) in favour of BJP (+). From 23.2% in 2010 it has gone up to 42% in 2015.

On the other hand, there is a negative swing for JDU(+). From 49.8% in 2010 it has come down to 40% in 2015. A decline of 9.8% i.e. -9.8%

SEAT PROJECTION

As per the survey findings, BJP (+) is all set to form the government. From 94 seats in 2010, BJP (+) is set to increase its tally by more than 30 seats. The survey projects around 125 seats (120 – 130) in 2015 for BJP (+). This is a gain of 31 seats.

On the other hand, JDU (+) seat share has come down drastically from 141 seats in 2010 to around 106 seats (102-110) in 2015. This is a decline of around 35 seats.

CM CHOICE

Perhaps the JDU can take comfort from the fact that when it comes to the choice for the Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar beats everyone hands down. Nitish gets 29% followed by  Sushil Kumar Modi 19%. Lalu is a distant third at 12% followed by Ram Vilas Paswan at 7% and Jitan Ram Manjhi at 6%.

PUBLIC OPINION ON PERFORMANCE OF NITISH KUMAR’S GOVERNMENT

Nitish Kumar can also take comfort from the fact that 44% of the respondents feel that Nitish has delivered as per expectations.

While 14% feel he has delivered more than what was expected of him, 29% feel he has delivered less than what was expected of him.

NITISH GOVERNMENT’S BIGGEST FAILURE

While 44% may feel that Nitish Kumar has delivered as per expectations, it is clear what is pulling him down. While 23% of the respondents feel that there is slow job growth in the state, 21% feel that he has failed to curb corruption.

MODI VS NITISH

Here Narendra Modi wins hands down. While 42 % of the respondents feel that Narendra Modi is a more reliable leader, only 34 feel the same for Nitish.

Also, 45% feel that Narendra Modi’s model of development is better, only 30% feel the same for Nitish Kumar.

WHO BROUGHT GOOD GOVERNANCE TO BIHAR?

These findings suggests that people in Bihar were far more happy when Nitish Kumar was in alliance with the BJP. While 44% feel that Nitish delivered best when he was in alliance with the BJP, only 33% feel that JDU minus the BJP is better.

MOST POPULAR YOUNG LEADER

Chirag Paswan: 18%

Pappu Yadav: 10%

Tejaswi Yadav: 10%

Rahul Gandhi: 8%

Shahnawaz Hussain: 7%

 METHODOLOGY

The survey was designed and analyzed by Dhananjai Joshi, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Akankshya Baruah and Kunal Singh.  Anand Chaudhary and Abhinav Aery coordinated data collection. Gopal Rawat and Suraj Pal coordinated data processing.

SURVEY CONDUCTED ACROSS 81 ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCIES

RESPONDENTS FROM 321 POLLING STATIONS SURVEYED

TOTAL SAMPLE SIZE OF THE SURVEY: 5968

SURVEY CONDUCTED BETWEEN SEPT 1-5

INDIA TODAY GROUP – CICERO BIHAR RCS TRACKER POLL (WAVE – I) – 2015

SAMPLE FRAME
No. of AC’s No. of PS Total Sample
81 321 5968
SAMPLE PROFILE
Census Survey Estimate
Female 47.9 42
Rural 89 90
Muslim 16.9 14
SC 15.9 15
VOTE PROJECTION
VS 2010 VS 2015 Swings
JD(U)+ 49.8 40 -9.8
BJP+ 23.2 42 18.8
Others 27 18 -9
*JD(U)+includes JD(U), RJD and INC
**BJP+ includes BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM
SEAT FORECAST
VS 2010 VS 2015 Range Loss/Gain
JD(U)+ 141 106 102 to 110 -35
BJP+ 94 125 120 to 130 31
Others 8 12 10 to 14 4
VOTE BY CASTE/COMMUNITY
Caste/Community JD(U)+ BJP+ Others
Brahmin 18 70 12
Thakur/Rajput 20 70 10
Bhumihar 16 77 7
Other Upper Caste 35 52 13
Ahir/Yadav 62 27 11
Kurmi/Koeri 42 34 24
Other OBC 34 43 23
Mahadalits 33 49 18
Other Dalits 29 54 17
Muslims 65 15 20
Others 36 43 21
VOTE BY AGE GROUPS
Age Group JD(U)+ BJP+ Others
Young (Up to 25) 39 43 18
Middle Aged (26 to 55) 40 42 18
Old (56 & Above) 40 41 19